Abstract: Objective To investigate the factors affecting the long-term prognosis of patients with alcoholic cirrhosis (ALC) complicated with spontaneous bacterial peritonitis (SBP) and to develop a prognostic model. Methods The clinical information of 159 ALC patients complicated with SBP were collected. They were divided into modeling group (123 cases) and verifying group (36 cases). Patients in the modeling group were subdivided into death group (47 cases) and survival group (76 cases) according to their outcomes after 1-year. Clinical information of all patients was collected and compared. Significant single risk variants were selected for further Logistic regression analysis to obtain the risk factors for building a prognostic model. The resulting model was further validated in the verifying group of patients. Results Logistic regression analysis showed that age(OR=0.935,95% CI:0.883~0.990), history of SBP(OR=0.195,95% CI:0.082~0.462), history of hypertension(OR=0.364,95% CI:0.134~0.990), complicated upper gastrointestinal bleeding(OR=0.364,95% CI:0.140~0.942), complicated with hepatorenal syndrome(OR=0.271,95% CI:0.094~0.777), Maddery discriminant function(OR=0.981,95% CI:0.969~0.994)and albumin level(OR=1.061,95% CI:0.999~1.127) were independent risk factors associated with survival (P<0.05). The area under the ROC curve of the prediction model was 0.805 (95% CI:0.727-0.883).The sensitivity, specificity, and the total accuracy of the model was 87.50%, 95.00%, and 91.67% respectively. Conclusion Age, history of SBP, history of hypertension, complicated with upper gastrointestinal bleeding, complicated with hepatorenal syndrome, Maddery discriminant function and albumin level are the high risk factors for the poor long-term prognosis in ALC patients with SBP. The prediction model established on these factors is accurate for predicting long-term prognosis of ALC patients with SBP.

Key words: Alcoholic liver cirrhosis, Spontaneous bacterial peritonitis, Long-term prognosis, Risk factors, Prognostic model