Abstract: Objective To investigate the prognostic value of portal vein velocity (PVV), platelet count (PC) to splenic diameter (SD) ratio (PC/SD) for esophagogastric varices (EGV) in patients with hepatitis B-related cirrhosis. Methods A total of 127 patients with hepatitis B-related cirrhosis who received medical treatment in Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region Hospital of Traditional Chinese Medicine from June 2021 to April 2023 with complete clinical data included electronic gastroscopy, hepatobiliary spleen ultrasound, and portal vein color ultrasound were selected. They were divided into an EGV group of 75 patients and a non-EGV group of 52 patients according to the results of electronic gastroscopy. Univariate analysis was performed on the influencing factors of EGV group, and then binary logistic regression was used to analyze the non-invasive predictive indicators of EGV, and the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve was drawn to evaluate the value of each indicator in predicting EGV. The area under the curve (AUC) and its truncation value were calculated, as well as the corresponding sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value (PPV) and negative predictive value (NPV). Results Univariate analysis showed statistical differences in the following variables between the two groups, including PVV (t=-4.421), PLT (Z=-5.654), SD (t=-5.163), PC/SD (Z=5.585), AST (Z=-4.005), CHE (t=6.864), Alb (t=7.248), TBil (t=-6.654),INR (t=-8.889), APRI index (Z=-6.372), liver cirrhosis stage (χ²=52.307), ascites (χ²=26.057), hepatic encephalopathy (χ²=7.435), Child-Pugh classification (χ²=83.923), and all P values were less than 0.001. Binary logistic regression analysis showed that PVV (OR:1.426, 95%CI: 1.172~1.735) was an independent risk factor for EGV in patients with hepatitis B-related liver cirrhosis. PC/SD (OR:0.148,95%CI: 0.065-0.337) was a protective factor for EGV. The AUC of PVV in predicting EGV in patients with hepatitis B cirrhosis was 0.718, with the cut-off value of 21.5. And the model's predictive sensitivity and specificity was 77.3% and 44.2%, respectively. The positive predictive value was 66.7%, and the negative predictive value was 57.5%. When the AUC of PC/SD for predicting EGV was 0.812 and the cut-off value was 0.721, its predictive sensitivity was 84.0%, the specificity was 57.7%, the positive predictive value was 74.1%, and the negative predictive value was 71.4%. Conclusion Both PVV and PC/SD have good predictive value for EGV in patients with hepatitis B cirrhosis.

Key words: Esophagogastric varices, Hepatitis B cirrhosis, Portal vein velocity, Platelet counter, Splenic length