Abstract: Objective To investigate the influencing factors of esophageal and gastric variceal bleeding (EGVB) in cirrhotic patients and develop a risk model. Methods 128 cirrhotic patients with esophageal and gastric varices (EGV) admitted to Zhangjiagang Aoyang Hospital were randomly divided into a training set of 102 cases and a validation set of 26 cases at an 8∶2 ratio. Based on the occurrence of esophageal and gastric variceal bleeding (EGVB), they were divided into an EGVB group of 48 cases and a non-EGVB group of 54 cases. The risk factors for EGVB in EGV patients with cirrhosis were screened, and a risk model was constructed and validated for predicting EGVB in cirrhosis. Results The PLT level in the EGVB group was (77.31 ± 8.02) × 10⁹/L, which was lower than that in the non-EGVB group [(89.61 ± 9.75) × 10⁹/L, P<0.05]. The PT, splenic vein diameter, spleen elasticity value, and the proportion of moderate-to-severe EGV in the EGVB group were (19.82 ± 4.05) s, (11.03 ± 2.75) mm, (16.85 ± 2.14) kPa, and 91.67%, respectively, all of which were higher than those in the non-EGVB group [(15.61 ± 3.27) s, (8.41 ± 2.91) mm, (12.68 ± 2.81) kPa, and 75.93%, P<0.05]. PLT, PT, splenic vein diameter, spleen elasticity value, and EGV severity are influencing factors for the occurrence of EGVB in cirrhotic patients with EGV (P<0.05). The sensitivity, specificity, and area under the curve of the risk model prediction training set for liver cirrhosis EGVB are 0.775, 0.865, and 0.875, respectively. The sensitivity of the risk model prediction validation set for liver cirrhosis EGVB is 0.763, the specificity is 0.841, and the area under the curve was 0.861. Conclusion PLT, PT, inner diameter of splenic vein, splenic elasticity value, and severity of EGV are related to the occurrence of EGVB in liver cirrhosis. Constructing a risk model is helpful for early assessment of EGVB in liver cirrhosis.

Key words: Cirrhosis, Esophageal and gastric variceal rupture and bleeding, Influencing factors, Risk Model