Abstract: Objective To analyze the risk factors of esophageal and gastric varices (EGV) in patients with cirrhosis based on ultrasonic shear wave elastography, and to construct and verify the prediction model. Methods Ninety-eight patients with cirrhosis admitted to Anqing Municipal Hospital from August 2021 to September 2024 were randomly divided into a training set (n=78) and a validation set (n=20) according to 8:2 quantitative analysis. The factors of EGV occurrence in cirrhotic patients were analyzed, and the predictive model was constructed and validated. Results In the training set, 22 patients developed EGV. In the validation set, EGV occurred in 6 cases. The Child-Pugh grades were B and C, combined with splenomegaly, SS and LS (P<0.05). Binary logistic regression analysis showed that splenomegaly [OR=4.173 (95%CI: 1.454~11.972)], SS level [OR=1.291 (95%CI: 1.118~1.492)], LS level [OR=1.662 (95%CI: 1.270~2.176)] and Child-Pugh grade B and C [OR=3.652 (95%CI: 1.184~11.265)] were the influencing factors for EGV occurrence in cirrhotic patients (P<0.05). The sensitivity and specificity of the training set model to predict EGV in patients with cirrhosis were 90.91%, 89.82%, and 0.894, respectively. The sensitivity and specificity of the validation set model for predicting EGV in patients with cirrhosis were 86.40%, 84.50%, and 0.879, respectively. Conclusion The incidence of EGV in cirrhosis patients is correlated with higher Child-Pugh grades, along with the presence of splenomegaly, SS, and LS. Developing a nomogram prediction model proves to be an effective tool for forecasting the likelihood of EGV occurrence in these patients.

Key words: Shear wave elastic imaging, Liver cirrhosis, Esophageal and gastric varices, Risk factors, Prediction model