Abstract: Objective To evaluate the prognostic value of serum soluble hemoglobin scavenger receptor (sCD163) and matrix metalloproteinase-9 (MMP-9) in cases with esophageal and gastric varices bleeding (EGVB). Methods A total of 178 patients with EGVB admitted to our hospital from January 2018 to November 2023 were selected. They were divided into a death group (n=11) and a survival group (n=167) according to their prognosis. Serum levels of sCD163 and MMP-9 were detected in all subjects after admission and compared among all groups. The prognostic value of serum sCD163 and MMP-9 in patients with EGVB were evaluated by receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC) method , and the related factors affecting the prognosis of cases with EGVB were explored by multi-factor logistics regression. Results The serum levels of sCD163 and MMP-9 in patients with EGVB in the death group were higher than those in the survival group [(98.96±16.69) pg/mL vs. (157.54±18.46) pg/mL, (88.69±15.66) ng/mL vs. (345.43±35.74) ng/mL, respectively] (P<0.05). ROC curve analysis showed that the areas under the curve (AUC) of serum sCD163 and MMP-9, and their combination in predicting the death of patients with EGVB were 0.854 (95%CI: 0.804~0.904) and 0.867 (95%CI: 0.817~0.917), and 0.905 (95%CI: 0.855~0.955), respectively. Serum sCD163 (OR=3.762, 95%CI: 1.978~7.155) and MMP-9 (OR=3.469, 95%CI: 1.977~6.089) levels and MELD score (OR=2.423, 95%CI: 1.628~3.607) and GBS score (OR=2.779, 95%CI: 1.750~4.413) were risk factors associated with motality in patients with EGVB (P<0.05). Conclusion The increments of serum sCD163 and MMP-9 levels are closely related to the prognosis of patients with EGVB, and has good prognostic predicting value, which may to be used as biomarkers to evaluate the patients’ prognosis.

Key words: Esophageal and gastric varices rupture hemorrhage, Soluble hemoglobin scavenger receptor, Matrix metalloproteinase-9, Prognosis